Modeling Analysis of Power Plants for Compliance Extensions in 51 Air Quality Control Regions

Past studies indicate a nationwide potential low-sulfur coal supply deficit in 1975 arising from extremely low-sulfur State Implementation Plan requirements which cannot ail be met in time by available coal and gas cleaning technology. One means to alleviate this net deficit would be to grant variances where at least primary air quality standards would be maintained.

An extensive modeling analysis was conducted by EPA and Walden Research on a large number of power plants in 51 AQCRs located in 20 states to determine if compliance extensions at these plants could significantly reduce the projected deficit of lowsulfur coal. Using simulation modeling, air quality impact at each plant for projected 1975 operations was determined with application of SIP regulatory requirements and with a full variance from SIP requirements for coal-fired boilers. The results from this investigation indicate that the attainment of primary SO2 air quality standards for the coal-fired plants would probably not be jeopardized by the application of full variance status to 34% of the plants and limited variance status to an additional 22% of the plants. No variance is appropriate for the remaining plants. The projected annual reduction In low-sulfur coal demand (less than 1.0% sulfur) is approximately 137 million tons. The projected shift in the average coal sulfur distribution is from 1.2% under SIP status to 2.1% under the applicable variance status. The power plant variance strategy appears, then, to offer a potentially feasible approach toward alleviating the low-sulfur coal deficit problem without jeopardizing attainment of primary air quality standards. It should be emphasized that compliance extensions are not the only way, or the most desirable way, of dealing with this problem. The final selection of a strategy for a given state or AQCR and the implementation of that strategy involve many questions and policy matters beyond the scope of this study.     

Range-wide Yangtze freshwater dolphin expedition: The last chance to see Baiji?

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: There are two species of fresh water cetaceans surviving in the Yangtze River system in China: Baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis). As a result of the expansion of human activities on the river, their distribution ranges appear to be decreasing and in the case of the Baiji, are even being restricted to several sections. The Baiji is the world's most critically endangered cetacean species with a population estimated at only a few tens of individuals. The Yangtze finless porpoise is the world's only freshwater-adapted population of the species, and it has been estimated that only around 1,000 individuals remain in the river system. In order to prevent the extinction of Baiji and a sharp decline in the abundance of the porpoise, in situ conservation (i.e. in the river) and two ex situ conservation (i.e. in semi-natural reserves and in captivity) strategies were proposed and have been implemented since the early 1990s. In view of both the severely endangered status of the animals and the severely degraded conditions of their habitats, the feasibility and actual status of these two strategies are raised for discussion. MAIN FEATURES: The threats faced by the cetaceans are mainly from the unfettered exploitation of the river's resources. In the past 20 years, five nature reserves have been established along the river. Imposing maximum prohibition of harmful and illegal fishing methods in the reserves might prolong the process of extinction of these cetaceans in the wild, but so far, the administrative measures taken in the reserves have not yet kept the abundance from sharply declining. As human use of the river and its resources is expected to intensify for many decades into the future, the ability of the river to continue to support these species is certainly undecided. Therefore, rescuing animals from the river and establishing viable breeding populations in seminatural reserves, in which the environment is similar to the main stream of the river, and in captivity, has to be considered urgently as the short-term goal of ex situ strategies. Since the abundance of porpoises is higher than that of the Baiji, we have first established breeding populations of them in the semi-natural reserves and in captivity. But, considering the extremely low density of Baiji in the river, an immediate range-wide Yangtze Baiji survey is an urgent need for locating and capturing sufficient Baiji for successfully establishing a breeding population of them in semi-natural reserves. RESULTS: Two semi-natural reserves (in Shishou, Hubei Province, and Tongling, Anhui Province) have been set up along the river in order to establish breeding populations of the Baiji and the porpoises. So far, several small groups of porpoises that were caught in the main stream of the river have successively been introduced into the semi-natural reserves. Under careful management, these animals in both of the semi-natural reserves not only survive, but can also reproduce naturally and successfully. At least one or three calves were born in each reserve each year. Additionally, a breeding group of porpoises is being established at the Baiji Dolphinarium at the Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan. There are presently four adults and one calf living in the Dolphinarium. The calf, born in July, 2005, is the first captive bred Yangtze Finless Porpoise in the world. In preparation for the range-wide Yangtze cetacean survey, a 9-day pilot expedition on the river near Wuhan was conducted in March, 2006, in order to develop methods for locating the Baiji. No Baiji were expected to be seen in such a short period but about 40 porpoise sightings were observed. Results of the pilot survey indicated that traditional visual and acoustical survey methods for cetaceans should be adapted to find the elusive Baiji in the river. Currently, the range-wide Yangtze cetacean survey is in preparation. The survey will cover over 1,700 km of the Yangtze River from Yichang to Shanghai, and is expected to provide detailed information on Baiji and porpoise numbers and distribution patterns in the river. DISCUSSION: Although the short-term goal of ex situ conservation is to rescue cetaceans from the river and to establish viable breeding populations in semi-natural reserves and in captivity, the long-term goal of releasing the animals back into the river when the threats have decreased and the natural environment has been improved, should not be neglected. Moreover, the in situ conservation efforts in the natural reserves, and even in the entire Yangtze River system, including the lakes, should not be ignored or abandoned at any time. The activities contributing to the conservation of the Baiji and the porpoise in the wild have the incidental effect of benefiting the entire Yangtze ecosystem and other rare threatened species. The dynamics of the groups of porpoises in semi-natural reserves should be monitored continually, in order to guide the establishment of breeding groups of Baiji in these semi-natural reserves in the near future. CONCLUSIONS: Under the existing severely degraded conditions of the Yangtze system, the sharply fall populations of Baiji and porpoises will not be suspended in the foreseeable future. Therefore, ex situ conservation should be emphasized, and the severely threatened Baiji in the river should be removed and translocated to semi-natural reserves for establishing viable breeding populations. The successful program of capturing, translocating and maintaining finless porpoises in the Shishou semi-natural reserve has demonstrated its adequacy as an ex situ environment for cetaceans. Following the successful pilot survey in the river, the immediate range-wide Yangtze cetacean survey is proposed and is in preparation. The range-wide survey is expected to ensure that any remaining Baiji can be found reliably and captured successfully after the survey. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: During the range-wide survey, not only the Baiji but also the porpoise as well as their habitats should be investigated based on visual and acoustical methods that adapted to the river and the animals. Meanwhile, the current risk levels to the Baiji and porpoises should be evaluated at each area where Baiji or porpoises can be reliably sighted. Any capture efforts should be targeted on the most threatened areas, or where there is maximum risk of injury or death. The immediate track of the Baiji should be carried out once a Baiji is sighted during the range-wide survey in order to obtain the movement route of the animals, which is crucial information for the successful capture operation. Additionally, the need to establish new semi-natural reserves for the porpoises should be placed on the agenda of local and central governments in the near future.     

Day length,latitude and behavioural (in)flexibility in baboons<Emphasis Type="Italic"> (Papio cynocephalus ursinus</Emphasis>)

Annual cycles in day length are an important consideration in any analysis of seasonal behaviour patterns, since they determine the period within which obligate diurnal or nocturnal animals must conduct all of their essential activities. As a consequence, seasonal variation in day length may represent an ecological constraint on behaviour, since short winter days restrict the length of the time available for foraging in diurnal species (with long summer days, and thus short nights, a potential constraint for nocturnal species). This paper examines monthly variation in activity patterns over a 4-year study of chacma baboons (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) at De Hoop Nature Reserve, South Africa. Time spent feeding, moving, grooming and resting are all significant positive functions of day length, even before chance events such as disease epidemics and climatically mediated home range shifts have been accounted for. These results provide strong support for the idea that day length acts as an ecological constraint by limiting the number of daylight hours and thus restricting the active period at certain times of year. Day length variation also has important implications across populations. Interpopulation variation in resting time, and non-foraging activity in general, is a positive function of latitude, with long summer days at temperate latitudes apparently producing an excess of time that cannot profitably be devoted to additional foraging or social activity. However, it is the short winter days that are probably of greatest importance, since diurnal animals must still fulfil their foraging requirements despite the restricted number of daylight hours and elevated thermoregulatory requirements at this time of year. Ultimately this serves to restrict the maximum ecologically tolerable group sizes of baboon populations with increasing distance from the equator. Seasonal variation in day length is thus an important ecological constraint on animal behaviour that has important implications both within and between populations, and future studies at non-equatorial latitudes must clearly be mindful of its importance.     

Questioning the Waste Hierarchy: The Case of a Region with a Low Population Density

Discussions of municipal solid waste (MSW) management are influenced increasingly by the concept of the waste hierarchy which, broadly speaking, places landfill as the least acceptable option for dealing with MSW, followed by incineration, recycling, re-use and reduction at source. In this paper, we want to question the wisdom of applying the waste hierarchy in a region with a low population density. The hierarchy was first developed with reference to the high population density areas such as the core of the EU. However, in low population density areas the economics of the various approaches to MSW is likely to be quite different. As a result, the application of the hierarchy could place an undue economic burden on a region relative to the environmental benefits that might arise. We estimate the costs, both internal and external, of the various methods of dealing with MSW in an area with the appropriate population density, drawing on information from a wide variety of sources. We find that landfill is significantly cheaper than in high population density areas, even when account is taken of the associated externalities. In addition, it is generally cheaper than the alternative methods. As such, we conclude that landfill should not be shunned as a disposal method in low population density areas.     

Evaluation of Three Watershed‐Scale Pesticide Environmental Transport and Fate Models1

Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) has completed an evaluation of three watershed‐scale simulation models for potential use in Food Quality Protection Act pesticide drinking water exposure assessments. The evaluation may also guide OPP in identifying computer simulation tools that can be used in performing aquatic ecological exposure assessments. Models selected for evaluation were the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the Nonpoint Source Model (NPSM), a modified version of the Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF), and the Pesticide Root Zone Model‐Riverine Water Quality (PRZM‐RIVWQ) model. Simulated concentrations of the pesticides atrazine, metolachlor, and trifluralin in surface water were compared with field data monitored in the Sugar Creek watershed of Indiana’s White River basin by the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. The evaluation not only provided USEPA with experience in using watershed models for estimating pesticide concentration in flowing water but also led to the development of improved statistical techniques for assessing model accuracy. Further, it demonstrated the difficulty of representing spatially and temporally variable soil, weather, and pesticide applications with relatively infrequent, spatially fixed, point estimates. It also demonstrated the value of using monitoring and modeling as mutually supporting tools and pointed to the need to design monitoring programs that support modeling.